Modeling the Future Challenge

Predict the Future and Solve Real-World Problems

The Modeling the Future Challenge (MTFC) is an academic competition developed with the Institute of Competition Sciences, a leader in challenge-based learning programs. The premise of the MTFC is simple: junior and senior high school students are challenged to develop and present their own mathematical models of how a new technology or industry might change the future. Registration is free, and students have a chance to win $60,000 worth of scholarship prizes.

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Students learn how mathematics applies to cutting-edge industries and technologies. They also learn about highly sought-after careers as actuaries and other STEM-related professional opportunities.

Get Your Hands Dirty With Analysis

Teams of one to five high school students conduct an actuarial research project in which they make recommendations to companies, organizations, government agencies or other groups based on their own mathematical models, real-world data analysis and risk management.

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students

Over 879 students participated in the Modeling the Future Challenge during the 2023-2024 season.

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teams

registered for the Challenge in 2023-2024, up from only 50 teams during the first year of the Challenge in 2017-2018.

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increase

in overall student math skills as a result of participating in the Challenge, according to 2022-2023 educators.

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increase

in overall student problem-solving skills as a result of participating in the Challenge, according to 2023-2024 educators.

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Excel Training One - Flood Insurance from Competition Sciences on Vimeo.

Phase One: Scenarios

Student teams are given a scenario description, data set and series of up to 30 questions to evaluate the team’s expertise in five areas:

Statistics and Probability Fundamentals
Projecting Trends
Modeling Data
Analyzing Risks
Making critical thinking recommendations

Teams that pass the Scenario Phase will be recognized as Modeling the Future Challenge Semi-Finalists and move on to the Project Phase of the Challenge where they conduct their own actuarial research projects.

Sample Training Scenarios

Phase Two: Project Proposals

Once your team has qualified, you will be entered into the main Project Phase of the Challenge. Each qualified team is matched with an actuarial mentor to provide high-level guidance on their project. Mentors meet virtually with teams twice during the project period.

To complete your project, you will work through five high-level steps:

Problem Identification
Data Identification
Mathematical Modeling
Risk Analysis
Recommendations

Project Proposal Examples

Modeling the Future Challenge 2024-2025 Timeline

Registration is open!

August 26, 2024

October 9, 2024

November 10, 2024

December 8, 2024

December 16, 2024

December 18, 2024

March 2, 2025

March 19, 2025

April 6, 2025

April 28- May 2, 2025

Registration Opens

Scenario Phase Workshop

Registration Closes

Scenario Response & Project Proposal Due

Semifinalist Announcement

Project Phase Workshop

Project Reports Due

Finalist Announcement

Final Videos & Papers Due

National Symposium

Modeling the Future Challenge Winners

2022-2023 | Modeling the Future Challenge Winners

First Place

Julia Hudson from New Trier High School in Winnetka, Illinois

Second Place

Amar Kanakamedala, Jeffrey Liu, Evan Wu, Henry Yu and Lou Zhou from Memphis University School in Memphis, Tennessee

Third Place

Abhinav Gorrepati, Shreyans Jain, Sarthak Jain, Vinay Singamsetty and Ryan Tabatabai from Silver Creek High School in San Jose, California

Fourth Place

Tyler Li, Alex Lin, Kevin Shen and Alexander Wang from Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire, Illinois

2023-2024 | Modeling the Future Challenge Winners

First Place

Diana Tang and Qi Zhang from Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire, Illinois

Second Place

Lillian Wang, Jaden Chen, Audrey Hong, and Aaroh Tak from Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire, Illinois

Third Place

Karina Chung, Maya Figelman, Avnish Kumar, Davis Rattanavijai, and Tsubasa Tamura from Newton North High School in Newton, Massachusetts

Fourth Place

Sophia Caramanica, Anthony DeRosa, Derek Desrosiers, Lindsey Paradise, and Heidy Rodriguez from Massachusetts Academy of Math & Science in Worcester, Massachusetts

Modeling the Future Challenge FAQs

Have another question about the Challenge that's not already answered below? Be sure to visit the Modeling the Future Challenge competition site, or email us at challenge@mtfchallenge.org.

What is the Modeling the Future Challenge?

The MTFC is an academic challenge for high school students that combines math modeling, data analysis and risk management. It is hosted by The Actuarial Foundation with design and operations support from the Institute of Competition Sciences. The premise is simple: each year students are challenged conduct their own research project modeling real-world data to analyze risks and make recommendations.

Who can participate in the Challenge?

Is this an individual or team Challenge?

What does it take to qualify for the Challenge?

How do I register my team and submit my report?

First make sure you’re signed up to receive updates through our email newsletter. When the qualification period opens, team registration will also be open. Registration is conducted through the Institute of Competition Sciences’ management platform. When the registration period opens, click the register link on the top menu of this site to find more information about setting up your team. Reports are also submitted through the Institute of Competition Sciences’ management platform. On your team page on the dashboard of the ICS site, you will see a link to upload your qualifying scenario response during the Qualifying Phase. After your team qualifies, you will see a link to upload your report during the Project Phase.