Modeling the Future Challenge

Predict the Future and Solve Real-World Problems

The Modeling the Future Challenge (MTFC) is an academic competition developed with the Institute of Competition Sciences, a leader in challenge-based learning programs. The premise of the MTFC is simple: junior and senior high school students are challenged to develop and present their own mathematical models of how a new technology or industry might change the future. Registration is free, and students have a chance to win $60,000 worth of scholarship prizes.

Students learn how mathematics applies to cutting-edge industries and technologies. They also learn about highly sought-after careers as actuaries and other STEM-related professional opportunities.


Get Your Hands Dirty With Analysis

Teams of one to five high school students conduct an actuarial research project in which they make recommendations to companies, organizations, government agencies or other groups based on their own mathematical models, real-world data analysis and and risk management.



were involved in Modeling the Future during the 2021-2022 season, up from only 140 participants in 2017-2018.



joined the Challenge in 2021-2022, up from only 50 teams in 2017-2018.



in overall student math skills as a result of participating in the Challenge, according to 2021-2022 educators.



in overall student problem-solving skills as a result of participating in the Challenge, according to 2021-2022 educators.

to Our Modeling the Future Challenge Sponsors

Our sponsors help open the door to excellence in math.

Phase One: Scenarios

Student teams are given a scenario description, data set and series of up to 30 questions to evaluate the team’s expertise in five areas:

  1. Statistics and Probability Fundamentals
  2. Projecting Trends
  3. Modeling Data
  4. Analyzing Risks
  5. Making critical thinking recommendations

Teams that pass the Scenario Phase will be recognized as Modeling the Future Challenge Semi-Finalists and move on to the Project Phase of the Challenge where they conduct their own actuarial research projects.

Phase Two: Project Proposals

Once your team has qualified, you will be entered into the main Project Phase of the Challenge. Each qualified team is matched with an actuarial mentor to provide high-level guidance on their project. Mentors meet virtually with teams twice during the project period.

To complete your project, you will work through five high-level steps:

  1. Problem Identification
  2. Data Identification
  3. Mathematical Modeling
  4. Risk Analysis
  5. Recommendations

Modeling the Future Challenge 2022-2023 Timeline

Registration Opens Every Fall

September 12, 2022
October 20, 2022
November 11, 2022
December 2, 2022
December 12, 2022
December 15, 2022
March 3, 2023
March 22, 2023
March 22, 2023
April 24-28, 2023

Registration Opens

Virtual Student & Teacher Workshop

Registration Closes

Scenario Response & Project Proposal Due

Semifinalist Announcement
How to Meet With Mentors Webinar
Project Reports Due
Finalist Announcement
Final Videos & Papers Due
National Symposium

Modeling the Future Challenge Winners

Modeling the Future Challenge FAQs

Have another question about the Challenge that's not already answered below? Be sure to visit the Modeling the Future Challenge competition site, or email us at

Get Involved with the Modeling the Future Challange



The new competition season is now open! You can participate as an individual or as a team of up to five students. Register by November 11.



Get your students engaged in the next Modeling the Future Challenge. Check out our resources and training materials.


Actuaries | Volunteers

The Modeling the Future Challenge is in need of judges and mentors. Sign up today!


Partners | Donors

If your organization is interested in partnering with us on Modeling the Future Challenge, view our 2022-2023 sponsorship opportunities [PDF].

Thank You to Our 2022-2023 Modeling the Future Challenge Sponsors

Pioneer ($50,000)

Pacesetter ($10,000)

Builder ($5,000)

Rick & Beth Jones

Founding Sponsor

Roy & Georgia Goldman

Helen Galt Educator Award Supporter

In remembrance of an inspiring mentor and sponsor, you can support the Modeling the Future Challenge with a donation to the Helen Galt Educator Award.