Modeling the Future: A Decade of Risk, Research, and Real-World Solutions

Ten years ago, The Actuarial Foundation set out with a simple but ambitious vision: show students that mathematics can solve real-world problems. What began as an idea to introduce high school students to actuarial thinking has grown into the Modeling the Future Challenge (MTFC), a national competition that empowers students to use mathematical modeling, data analysis, and critical thinking to address some of today’s most pressing issues.

Although the competition launched in 2016, the inaugural national challenge took place during the 2017–2018 school year. That first year served as a pilot to understand how students and teachers would respond to a new kind of STEM competition. With 16 mentors, 31 teachers, 52 teams, and 140 students, the Foundation knew it had created something with tremendous potential.

For Melissa Hollis, one of MTFC’s earliest volunteers and the Program’s Chair, the journey began with a simple invitation to give back.

“One of my earliest memories connected to MTFC started with a simple message at an actuarial town hall. Our Chief Actuary spoke about the value of volunteering not just for the organizations we serve, but for ourselves. Those experiences create something meaningful and help us grow in ways our day-to-day roles sometimes cannot.”

Inspired to get involved, Melissa connected with Roy Goldman, the Founding Sponsor, and other volunteers to brainstorm what the competition could become. As those conversations grew, so did the vision.

“We began to shape a vision for something broader, ultimately becoming national program. Looking back, I never would have predicted the scale, reach, and impact MTFC has today. I feel incredibly fortunate to have been inspired to get involved early on and to have had the opportunity to be part of something that continues to grow and make a difference.”

Turning that vision into reality required expertise and collaboration. In 2016, The Actuarial Foundation partnered with the Institute of Competition Sciences (ICS) to help design a national competition that would engage students in actuarial science and risk analysis. Josh Neubert, CEO of ICS, worked closely with Foundation volunteers, including Roy Goldman and the Challenge Development Committee, to build what would become the Modeling the Future Challenge.

“After about six months of challenge design, the Modeling the Future Challenge was born. We collaborated with Roy Goldman and a number of other volunteers to create the Challenge Development Committee and develop the Actuarial Process Guide that became the bedrock of the competition.”

As the competition evolved, so did its format. MTFC transitioned from a themed case competition to an open-research model, allowing students to investigate topics that mattered most to them while applying the actuarial process.

“The science fair model allows MTFC to expand into multiple categories and bring on various topic-based awards while letting students come up with projects of their own. This open research model was important in getting more schools and students engaged.”

The impact of that evolution is reflected in the numbers. What began with 140 students and 52 teams has grown into a nationwide competition. During the 2025–2026 competition, MTFC welcomed 593 students, 319 teams, and 79 volunteers, more than quadrupling student participation since its inaugural year.

For Roy Goldman, who helped develop the competition from the beginning, the growth represents much more than participation statistics.

“It is so exciting to see the growth of MTFC, not only in the number of schools and students participating, but also in the breadth of the problems posed, the depth of the modeling and analysis performed, and the clarity in which recommendations are made and defended.”

Roy believes the competition has always been about more than introducing students to actuarial science. It’s about giving them the tools to solve meaningful problems.

“The MTFC was created to show how mathematics and modeling expertise, combined with communication skills, can be used to analyze real-world problems that lead to sound recommendations. Indeed, that’s what actuaries do every day.”

As we celebrate MTFC’s tenth anniversary, we also look ahead to its next chapter. Josh envisions a future where the competition continues to expand through regional events, new categories, and additional partnerships that allow even more students to participate.

“We’re at the point in challenge development where we know what works. Now we can focus on developing new expansion opportunities that engage students in topics relevant to their lives.”

Ten years ago, MTFC started with an idea and a small group of dedicated volunteers who believed students could use mathematics to change the world. Today, thanks to the vision of leaders like Melissa, Josh, Roy, and countless volunteers, teachers, mentors, judges, and sponsors, that idea has grown into a nationally recognized competition that continues to inspire hundreds of students each year.

As we celebrate this milestone, we’re grateful to everyone who has helped shape the Modeling the Future Challenge over the past decade. Here’s to the next ten years of empowering students to think critically, solve real-world problems, and discover the many possibilities that mathematics & actuarial science can offer.